10 October 2018
- Our supply index has consistently increased during the past 3-4 weeks. It is now above the 1000 GWh threshold and at similar y-on-y values. The discharging phase has already commenced for UK storage and it is currently exhibiting higher rates relative to its long-term mean. LNG imports into the UK may drop after the spike observed over the past 7 days. NBP-Brent coupling is absent.
- The high pressure areas that are currently affecting Scandinavia and central Europe will gradually fade away. Low pressure systems will start travelling across the UK and parts of central Europe (week 42). The net effect is to increase the wind output at the expense of gas demand. Moreover, temperatures are expected to drop and converge towards climatology.
- While the macro environment over the continent has gradually deteriorated during the past few months, the UK scenario has remained rather stable, yet showing some signs of weakness. The PMI still oscillates around 54, while the BE index has declined in September. The latest data on industrial production shows a rather flat trend.