21 November 2018
- Total power production is predicted to remain at current level in week 48. Gas will continue to be heavily employed as winds remain relatively weak for this time of the year. France-UK electricity flow remains well above average – not a single month in 2018 has shown below-average flow. French outages (y-on-y) remain well below average.
- High pressure will remain in place between the UK and Scandinavia over the next few days, allowing cold air masses to affect the UK. As a result, HDDs will be above average for the next 5 to 10 days. There is a tendency (after day 7) for low pressure systems to affect the UK, leading to a potential warming trend (as well as to an increase in wind output).
- Macroeconomic conditions continue to struggle. The PMI has now fallen to 52, in line with the major economies of continental Europe. A similar trend is observed on the other indicators we monitor, such as industrial production (manufacturing activity) and business expectation.