12 December 2018
- Gas supply in the UK (a combination of domestic production and pipeline imports) has been below average and is predicted to remain so during week 50. LNG imports are also expected to decline after several weeks of large volumes. Our storage index is still in “re-stocking mode”. However recharging rates have dropped below the norm for the first time in six weeks.
- The UK will be the battleground of two competing forces, with Atlantic winds trying to make their way towards the British Isles and a strong high pressure cell centred over Scandinavia. As a result, there will be swings in wind power production and associated impacts on the gas/wind share for power generation. Temperature wise, a warming trend may be in place for the next 5 to 10 days, although the associated positive anomalies will be relatively small.
- The macroeconomic environment still shows signs of weakness. The PMI (manufacturing) is on a downward trend (last value is close to 50), and our BE indicator exhibited a sharp drop with the November data. Industrial production currently shows a flat trend with no sign of recovery.