UK Natural Gas

September 7, 2017

The Research Team gives its views on the UK natural gas market


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5 September 2017 

  • Gas supply has significantly increased after the August break. Both domestic production and imports are up on a year-on-year basis.
  • Conversely, LNG volumes are down by a few hundred GWh, but remain above the 1000 GWh/week threshold.
  • Storage levels are currently at 20% of average capacity, while (at this time of the year) they should theoretically be approaching their maximum.
  • The coupling between crude and NBP has been weakening once again.
  • The next few days will be characterized by a sequence of low pressure systems coming from the North Atlantic.
  • Strong wind interludes will be followed by quiet spells. Overall, wind power production will be rather high, leading to a net decrease of the gas / wind spread.
  • Temperatures are set to be below average, although the associated anomalies should not be very large.
  • Daily power demand is predicted to slightly increase (weekly view).
  • The macroeconomic conditions further deteriorated since our latest publication.
  • The PMI has been oscillating around 54 during the past few months.
  • While still awaiting the latest industrial production figures, we recorded a decline in business expectations (August data).
  • The energy intensity index has been trending downward (past week), and will likely continue with its negative tendency for the next 5-10 days.