EU Power

February 7, 2018

The Research Team reviews the EU power market.


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6 February 2018

  • Total power production expected to slightly increase into week 7. Planned outages (both in Germany and France) to drop during week 7, after a temporary increase during week 5 / 6. Winds will be exceptionally weak during the next 5 days, leading to very low levels of production. While a relative increase is expected into week 7, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast.
  • The anti-cyclones that formed over parts of north-western Europe are predicted to gradually retract towards the west. This will likely change the wind direction from north-easterly to north-westerly. As a result, while temperatures are still expected to be below the norm, they should also slightly increase into week 7. Utilization of generation capacity (fossil fuels) will spike during the current week, but likely drop once again during week 7.
  • The macro-data continues to indicate a robust economic activity. Overall, the PMI, despite a slight drop, is on an upward trend. Similar analysis applies to the industrial production. The month-to-month progression of chemical production currently returns negative values, partially weakening the bullish view.