Ferrous Metals

February 7, 2018

The Research Team reviews the ferrous metals market.

 

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6 February 2018

  • We see short-term supply conditions as marginally bullish. Mill re-stocking gained further momentum which, along with lower imports and forward supplies, are positive price developments. However, the expected increase in spot supplies in the short-term are expected to put downward pressure on prices.
  • We see short-term demand conditions as bullish. Margins improved which is expected to lift near-term demand for IO. Steel rates declined which along with our lower domestic vs. imported ore arb suggest headwinds for IO prices.
  • Steepening of the forward curve as indicated by our cash and carry arb suggests price supportive developments.
  • Short-term macroeconomic conditions are marginally bearish. Downstream steel demand is mixed with the latest macro data showing weaker demand in the manufacturing sector. Short-term credit conditions continue to increase which compliments the headwinds created by weakening in currency conditions. 

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