10 May 2019
Market view (ITA Baseload):
- From a renewables standpoint, generation will be characterized by an increase in wind power production, with solar generation around average. Hydropower rates will be associated with a moderate deficit. Little rain over the Alps, combined with colder than average conditions, are the main drivers behind the negative trend. Phases of tightness are unlikely in the next 10 days when looking at the interconnector flows (both western and eastern side).
- High pressure will build up over northern Europe, with continental and southern sectors associated with low pressure conditions. This will make surface temperatures drop significantly, pushing an unseasonable request for heating. Temperatures at 1500 meters over the Alps will be associated with anomalies as low as -5/-7C.
- Macroeconomic conditions roughly confirm the performance of the continent. The PMI has stopped falling since January ‘19. Manufacturing activity has marginally recovered after a very bad Q4’18 and a difficult start to the year.