UK Natural Gas

May 15, 2019

The Research Team reviews the UK Natural Gas market

 

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15 May 2019

  • Supply conditions are characterized by counteracting trends. The predicted trend for the next 5 to 10 days is associated with a decline in gas volumes, aided by weaker (relative to the peak observed 2/3 weeks ago) LNG imports. Storage restocking rates are slightly below average for this time of year. The TTF-NBP coupling has declined for the first time in two months, showing signals of divergence between the two gas markets.
  • Demand for the next 5 to 10 days is predicted to be around average. Temperatures will gradually recover from the cold scenario observed in the past 10 days thanks to anti-cyclonic conditions building up over the UK. The high pressure area will lead to some tightness from a wind standpoint, yielding a positive trend in the gas/wind spread.
  • Macroeconomic conditions continue to struggle, however the strong negative trend observed in the past 12-15 months seems to have stalled. The PMI oscillates just above 50, and our BE index still shows negative values (but higher than Q1 figures). The energy intensity index (gas demand normalized by GDP) is predicted to increase in the next 5 to 10 days.

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