31 May 2019
EU Power (Ger baseload)
- Supply should be on the tight side for week 23 (and possibly 24), mainly down to wind underperforming (relative to current conditions). Hydro and solar are instead predicted to be around average, although a dry trend should emerge from the second half of week 23.
- High pressure will start building up over eastern Europe (end of this week). It is predicted to affect most of the European continent from week 23, leading to surface temperatures well above the norm. The annual cycle of power demand has typically a peak between June and July, which should reinforce the predicted increase in power request (see above). Fossil fuel capacity utilization is expected to rise in week 23.
- While the macroeconomic picture did not deteriorate over the past 30 days, signs of a decisive recovery are still nowhere to be found. The PMI has plateaued at around 44, and the latest data for industrial activity still struggles to move into positive territory. Conflicting trends have also been identified for specific segments, with cement production rising and chemical dropping.