UK Natural Gas

June 20, 2019

The Research Team reviews the UK Natural Gas market

 

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20 June 2019

  • Supply rates are picking up once again after a period of relative quiescence. Our proprietary index shows projected values close to the 5-year maximum. Storage restocking rates continue to be down relative to their long-term average. LNG imports should also increase after a phase characterised by weaker volumes. Coupling with TTF is strong.
  • High pressure conditions will eventually expand towards the UK after they previously built up over eastern Europe. As a result, surface temperatures will gradually increase, in particular over the southern sectors. Winds will also decrease during week 26, leading to an increase in the gas/wind spread (for power generation).
  • Macroeconomic conditions deteriorated substantially relative to our previous update. The PMI still remains slightly above 50, however all other indicators exhibited a significant drop. Both our BE oscillator and the industrial production are in negative territory, back to the bad performance observed in Q4’18.

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