EU Power (Ger baseload)

June 28, 2019

The Research Team reviews the EU Power market (German baseload)

 

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28 June 2019 

  • Total power generation will continue to be below the average of the period (around -8%) for the next 5 to 10 days. The deficit will be partially offset by abnormally high imports of electricity, mainly from France. Wind power will also substantially increase, further levelling off the aforementioned deficit. Dry weather conditions will be in place for the 5 to 10 days. Our precipitation index is projected to tumble to -30 mm. The nuclear system typically reacts when the index drops to -50 and below.
  • After western Europe experienced one of the strongest heatwaves, low pressure areas will start tracking southward towards continental Europe and Germany. As a result, temperatures are predicted to drop significantly. This will lead to a net decrease in power demand into week 27. There is a lot of uncertainty as we head towards mid-July, with the potential of below average demand persisting into week 28.
  • Macroeconomic conditions still struggle to show clear signs of recovery. The PMI has moved higher relative to previous values and is now above 45. However, the manufacturing activity still exhibits confusing signals. For example, latest figures on chemical and cement production are down from the previous month.

 

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