EU Power (Ita base load)

July 18, 2019

The Research Team reviews the EU Power (Italian base load) market

 

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18 July 2019

  • Renewables will be characterized by different trends during the next 10 days. Solar power is expected to increase, while the opposite will apply to wind generation. Hydro will continue to decrease due to the dry signal in conjunction with the declining seasonal cycle. Interconnector flows into Italy (both western and eastern side) will start dropping once again after a partial recovery.
  • A heat wave will likely affect most of Europe during week 30. Temperatures will be well above average over the whole of western and central Europe, including Italy. As a result, CDDs will significantly increase. The August forecast points to the persistence of high pressure conditions over Europe, supporting the continuation of above-average demand for the second half of the summer season.
  • Macroeconomic conditions deteriorated further in the past two months. The PMI went from 54 and above to 51. Moreover, the latest figures we hold for power production and cement/chemical production indicate the manufacturing activity is stagnant.

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