Natural Gas NBP

September 4, 2019

The Research Team reviews NBP


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4 September 2019

  • Our Supply Index (pipeline gas & domestic production) has been converging towards its long-term mean (just below 700 GWh/week) after a period spent in above-average territory. Storage levels are reaching their annual maximum and are very similar to the levels observed last year. Restocking rates are now close to normal. LNG arrivals have been limited (past two months). We do not see any change in the next couple of weeks. The coupling with TTF remains very strong.
  • While demand for power should remain slightly below average (i.e. >28 GW), temperatures will not support a positive trend. Our combined function of cooling and heating degree days shows negative anomalies (i.e. weak demand) for the next 10 days. The gas/wind spread will temporarily increase (next 2/3 days), however it is expected to drop thereafter, leading to a further decrease in gas demand.
  • The macroeconomic conditions are still weak and the overall performance is far from encouraging. Latest figures in industrial production show a month-on-month contraction. However, the latest data on the PMI shows the index remains at ~50 points. A similar trend is observed for the business expectation index, which remains in negative territory (for the 11th consecutive month).



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