26 September 2019
- Total production is expected to increase into week 40. This is partially due to the gradual decrease in planned outages (mainly fossil fuels), but also to the increase in wind power generation. Rainfall will also increase over the region, sending our precipitation index back above -25mm (accumulated anomaly in the past three months). On the French side, nuclear outages for the next 10/15 days have been increased relative to our previous reading, although the change is relatively small (i.e. <1 GW).
- High pressure conditions are predicted to build up over the North Atlantic. Initially, low pressure systems will travel along a zonal trajectory, however the prevailing wind direction will gradually shift to a more north-westerly flow. As a result, temperatures are expected to drop somewhat across continental Europe and the UK, leading to a slight increase in power demand. Fossil fuels utilization is forecast to decrease into week 40 (i.e. negative price development).
- The short-term macroeconomic environment further deteriorated in the past month. Latest figures available for the PMI indicate a drop to just above 41, 20 points down relative to the peak observed at the end of 2017. The industrial production remains very weak and confirms the bad performance recorded in the previous quarter.