EU Natural Gas

October 4, 2019

The Research Team looks at EU Natural Gas (TTF)

 

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4 October 2019

  • The E/NW spread is predicted to further decline on the back of decreased Russian volumes. However, the drop is expected to be marginal and has nothing to do with the potential shortage of Russian gas flowing thorough Ukraine. The storage index continues, unsurprisingly, to show abnormally low destocking rates. The current CU across the pan-european sites is ~96%. LNG volumes have once again flattened out after a short-lived peak recorded over the past two weeks.
  • Low pressure areas will continue to track from the north-west Atlantic. They will bring, at times, colder than average conditions over central and eastern Europe. As a result, the weekly HDDs are expected to slightly increase. At the same time, the gas/wind spread is predicted to decline relative to the previous 10/15-day period. This will therefore negatively impact the demand for gas. The climate spread is expected to further increase during the next 5 to 10 days, making the gas margin against thermal coal less attractive relative to the previous week.
  • The macroeconomic conditions are still weak and the overall performance remains far from encouraging. Latest figures in industrial production continue to show a negative trend. As a result, Q3 has provisionally become the worst performing quarter, year to date. The PMI index has also dropped, and its weighted version (north-western Europe) is now below 45 points.

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