EU Power (Ger baseload)

November 5, 2019

The Research Team reviews the EU Power (Ger baseload) market


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5 November 2019

  • Renewables production will drop significantly during the next 5 to 10 days (down 30% relative to week 43/44), hence impacting the total power generation. On the French side, the outages profile has been revised and is now well above our previous reading, with an additional 3GW install capacity removed from the grid. Our precipitation Index is still pointing upward, meaning wet conditions will remain in place. However, the indicator has been lately curbing and is expected to further slow down.
  • High pressure conditions will gradually build up over northern Europe. This will contribute in sending colder air masses over western Europe, pushing the surface temperature below the average of the period. Germany will remain on the edge of such air advections, although there is a possibility for it to be affected later in the period. As a result, the overall demand will gradually converge towards the mean of the period (i.e. ~62GW).
  • For the first time in many months we are commenting a macro section which looks far more promising. The PMI has not dropped, and although it does not show a clear positive trend yet, its adjustment close to 42 base points is already a news on its own. While the industrial production remains very weak, the latest figures in the single segments (in particular, chemicals) indicate a clear positive trend is currently underway.



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