17 December 2019
- We have been counting on a tighter supply in December and early January for a while but the latest data we have in hands still suggests otherwise.
- Our short-term demand assessment for up and mid-stream demand has improved further. This is reflected by the spot and forward soybean demand metrics, both of which are now aligned. Downstream demand in Asia, which underpinned the market rally in September and October, didn’t look very convincing in November. The conditions continue to improve, but we remain cautious about the strength of the rally due to poor downstream demand.
- Our short-term macroeconomic view remains outright bearish. Credit, and therefore trade finance, has not been flowing as smoothly as it did during weeks #30-40. The result was the soybean price decline during weeks #42-49.