UK Power

February 14, 2020

The Research Team reviews the UK Power market

 

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14 February 2020

  • Renewables production is predicted to be abundant. Wind will comfortably stay above the 10k MWh threshold for week 7 and 8. More generally, the jet-stream will keep pushing from the Atlantic towards the continent and Scandinavia, leading to widespread rains (i.e. healthy hydro). The French outages have been revised slightly higher than previously stated, however the difference is relatively small (between 1 and 2 GW).
  • The main direction of the jet-stream will be westerly, with a small northerly component. As a result, temperatures are expected to range from average (Scotland) to above average (southern England). The power demand is confirmed to be at its lowest in the past 5 years. Week 8 is predicted to be at around 33.9GW vs. a typical value >35GW.
  • Macroeconomic conditions have been improving during the past 2/3 months. The PMI has stopped its descent and is now trying to move higher towards 50 basepoints. A similar positive trend has been detected in the industrial production (December data) and in the Business Expectation Index (January data).

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