US Natural Gas

March 5, 2020

The Research Team reviews the US NatGas market

 

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5 March 2020

  • This week has started with our implied spot supply indicator showing a jump to tighter conditions. However, this may not last long as our implied forward supply indicator, which considers the outlook for the month, suggests an increase in available supply. Our storage injections indicator suggests that, currently destocking is occurring at a higher rate than is typical for this time of year. Although, with mild weather forecast for most of the next two weeks, this may be expected to change.
  • Our short-term implied demand indicator considers the weather forecast for up to the week ahead. The mild winter the USA has experienced so far is due to continue, and as a result demand is expected to drop. Our medium-term demand indicator, which looks at up to 15 days ahead, also paints a similar picture. So, although supply appears to be tightening, we will have to see whether it outweighs the drop in demand.
  • Our energy intensity index has decreased since week 9. This is because the energy intensity index is linked in part to the weather, which is forecast to be mild for the next 2 weeks. Our money flow index has been edging downwards since week 8. Meanwhile, short-term credit conditions have been continually increasing since week 6.

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