10 December 2020
- Supply behaviour has been entirely dominated by the highly anomalous downward trend of wind power generation (see also the “thought of the week”). Values are and continue to be predicted well below 300GWh. One year ago Germany was enjoying on average around 500GWh of wind-power production. Outages will continue to decrease as part of the typical seasonal cycle. However, those in Germany are expected to undergo a noticeable drop, while the French profile is predicted to remain flatter.
- High pressure conditions will remain a dominant theme for northern and eastern Europe, while the western sectors will be affected by a sequence of low pressure systems approaching from the Atlantic. The net result will be a marked increase in surface temperatures for the whole of Europe with an expected HDD anomaly of -3ºC in Germany during week 51. The mild weather should gradually ease thereafter.
- There are no relevant news since our latest publication. There we showed that the anticipated slow down of the macroeconomic activity had indeed verified. However, the recorded weakness was not even slightly comparable with the major disruption observed back in March and April. Both the PMI and the relevant manufacturing segments (e.g. chemical and cement) exhibited a slight decline relative to the October figures. It is now unlikely we will see any further deterioration in the short-term.