8 January 2021
- Since week 52 we have witnessed steady tightening of supply which continued this week. Compared to the first week of 2002, the supply is just over 2.5% lower. With storage withdrawals for the final week of 2020 being announced as greater than the 5-year mean yesterday, we look towards week 1 of 2021. Our estimation suggests considerably less than the 5-year mean, although our error bars include a range very close to this mean.
- Our domestic demand data (shown in the chart of the week) reflects our estimations for storage injections shown above, as we see lower than average demand for the start of 2020. This week a blocking high over Canada has reduced cold air stretching down over the east coast, keeping temperatures relatively mild for this time of year. However, our latest forecasts are expecting some cooler weather to emerge next week which should boost demand.
- The ratio between buying and selling on the market shows us that buying outweighs selling, and this week the index has improved further. Meanwhile, we have seen further deterioration to our credit index, with it starting the year with a negative signal. However, we are seeing steady improvements to the ratio of gas use to GDP.